Geopolitics, Trade, & Economic Experiments

WHAT’S INSIDE

• Tech In The News: Tariffs, DOGE, EU Rate Cuts, WHO, data and AI defense

• Companies to watch: Skild AI, Bio-Techne, Waabi, Kakao

• Feature: Geopolitics, Trade, & Economic Experiments

• Buzzy Tools: Latest Buzzy tech, AI and financial tools

• Deep Tech: The latest in deep tech, biotech, futurism and more

• Space Tech: Astroforge, Blue Origin flight

• Crypto: Blockchain govt, BTC Reserve, Stablecoins Bill, SEC De-Fanged + more

TECH IN THE NEWS

Trade War Heats Up — China retaliated with tariffs on U.S. gas/coal imports and launched a Google antitrust probe after Trump's added 10% tariff on China.

Europe Rate Cuts — The European Central Bank and the BOE cut interest rates this week, the ECB has stated there is room for more cuts; warns of inflation and the threats to the eurozone economy of a US-China trade war.

Buyout Reprieve — A U.S. judge temporarily blocked Trump’s buyout offer for federal workers, impacting 60,000+ who accepted it, ~1% of the workforce.

WHO Reform Push — The Trump team is considering demanding WHO reforms including installing a US leader as a pre-condition for continued membership.

EU Data Move — OpenAI launched a European data residency option to help organizations to meet local sovereignty requirements.

Google AI Shift — Google removed a self-imposed ban on the use of its Ai models for weapons/surveillance systems, following a similar move by OpenAI last year.

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COMPANIES TO WATCH

[Open Round] Skild AI — SoftBank is leading a $500M round into the general-purpose robotics AI development startup for uses from household to computer tasks.

Bio-Techne — The biotech company beat Q2 earnings estimates with a strong protein sciences unit performance, its shares were up 6.8% premarket.

Waabi — Partnered with Volvo to build autonomous trucks at scale by integrating self-driving tech directly into assembly lines, planning a public road launch this year.

Kakao — Teams up with OpenAI to develop a Korean language AI assistant for integration into the popular Korean KakaoTalk messaging app.

FRIDAY WRAP UP
Geopolitics, Trade, & Economic Experiments

It's been another whirlwind week at the intersection of tech, geopolitics, and finance. The new Trump administration has continued to make its mark, with a series of bold policies and actions signaling a major departure from the past and a clear intent to reshape the domestic and global landscape. From escalating trade wars, rate cuts, and supply chain disruption, to radical economic and AI government experiments and the rise of AI in defense and surveillance, the message is clear: 2025 is a year of transitions, and staying ahead of the curve is more critical than ever.

Trade War Heats Up 

The U.S.-China trade war has entered a new, more intense phase, with both sides exchanging tariffs and taking aim at major tech companies. China's retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods, including gas and coal, and its antitrust investigation into Google, underscore the growing complexity of this conflict - further complicated by China's export controls on critical minerals used in high-tech manufacturing, potentially disrupting supply chains for many industries. 

Euro-Cuts

The ECB and the BOE both cut interest rates, signaling a move towards stimulating economic growth in Europe. The ECB even indicated that there is room for further rate cuts as inflation moderates and fears emerge of the potential for inflation and the impact of the trade war to destabilize the Eurozone and global economy.

Argentina's Radical Economic Experiment 

Argentina is in the midst of a radical economic experiment under President Javier Milei. His severe austerity measures have brought down inflation, but the country is still grappling with strict currency controls and a current account deficit. His plan to lift these controls by 2026, with or without IMF assistance, is a high-stakes gamble that could either revive the economy or trigger a new crisis and runs on the peso. His decision to follow Trump in withdrawing from the WHO signals an isolationism and skepticism of major global institutions shared by Trump’s MAGA administration.

AI Takes the Reins

In the U.S., Trump and Musk are making their own radical experiment in government cost-cutting with a major push towards "AI-first" government is gaining momentum as well as copping serious flak. The appointment of a former Tesla engineer to lead a government agency like a tech startup and use AI and government data to identify cost-cutting measures, highlights the growing influence of AI in the public sector. The move has drawn serious criticism from many, including the resignation of Ted Carstensen, the deputy administrator of the USDS, renamed to DOGE), who declined the “Fork in the Road” offer for federal employees.  

AI and Geopolitics

Google's removal of its ethics ban on using AI for weapons and surveillance, (following OpenAI and Anthropic making a similar decision last year, shows that we can likely expect further expansion of this growth sector too. Speaking of surveillance, the revelation this week that the U.S. government is a customer of Israeli spyware maker Paragon Solutions also raises questions about surveillance and privacy. 

More AI Geopolitics

Also this week, the DeepSeek R1 AI model failed 50 safety tests, with many fearing the potential data and safety risks of adoption of Chinese built AI systems within the Trump administration and allied nations, The app is now banned in many across the Asia-Pacific and many Western nations. OpenAI also launched data residency in Europe, in response to regulatory concerns, underscores the increasing importance of data privacy and compliance and Europe’s intention to build its own data sovereign AI systems, and perhaps distance themselves strategically from Trump.

Trump's proposed solution for Gaza is also isolating him in Europe, as it involves the relocation of Palestinians and the redevelopment of the area into a U.S.-controlled international beach resort, which has been called "The Riviera of the Middle East". This plan echoes earlier comments by his VC son-in-law, Jared Kushner, who described Gaza's waterfront property as "very valuable" and suggested moving the people out to "clean it up" indicating intent to carve it up for development. The proposal has also further sparked geopolitical tension between the US, and Russia. 

Key Takeaways for Businesses and Investors

In this transitional global period, businesses and investors can thrive by being agile and well informed. This moment presents both opportunities and risks in diversifying supply chains, prioritizing data privacy and sovereignty. Assessing the 5D chess of geopolitical risk assessment is never easy , but it’s likely never been more complex, or more critical to understand it in order to make sound investment or strategic calls.

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BUZZY TOOLS 
Buzzy Tech Tools To Watch & Use

Oracle — NetSuite adds AI tools for fast price quotes on complex purchases.

Amazon — New Alexa AI with advanced Claude AI models coming this month.

Mistral AI — New app with fast inference engine processing 1000 words/sec.

Google — Launches Gemini 2.0 with Pro Experimental and Flash models.

MIT — SySTeC tool speeds up AI compute 30x by eliminating redundant calculations.

Adobe — Adds AI-powered contract intelligence to Acrobat's AI Assistant.

Thomson Reuters — Partners with Anthropic for trusted tax professional AI.

DEEP TECH
The Latest Technology & Trends To Watch

Robot Athletes — Humanoid replicates iconic sports moves from Ronaldo, Kobe.

AbdomenAtlas — Johns Hopkins AI dataset of 45k CT scans to detect cancer faster.

Quantum Encryption — New hologram-AI system creates uncrackable optical security.

Dialog 1.0 — New AI text-to-speech model outperforms ElevenLabs on emotiveness.

Nuclear Fusion — Zap Energy breakthrough in pursuit of sustainable fusion power.

Military Tech — HELIOS laser weapon system can neutralize drones from 5-mile range.

SPACE_RACE

—AstroForge_Plans mission to intercept metal-rich asteroid 2022 OB5 in Feb 2026

—Blue Origin_New Shepard rocket flight simulates lunar gravity for Moon research

CRYPTO WATCH

Blockchain Treasury — Elon Musk confirmed his interest in putting the U.S. Treasury on blockchain, per Forbes.

Bitcoin Reserve — White House crypto czar David Sacks is studying feasibility of national Bitcoin reserve, the work is still in the early stages.

Stablecoin Framework Bill — Sen. Hagerty introduced the stablecoin framework bill with bipartisan support. It aims to create a predictable regulatory environment.

SEC De-Fanged — The SEC is scaling back its 50-person crypto enforcement unit one of the first concrete steps by Trump to pull back on crypto regulation so far.

ECB Digital Euro — The ECB hopes Trump's pro-crypto stance will accelerate adoption of it digital euro CBDC.

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