January Fantasy Buzz Results 

Hello Tech Buzz Reader,

In case you are new here or have been living under a rock, we launched a predictions game at the beginning of the year —> Fantasy Buzz

Once a month we invite you to take 2 minutes of your time to answer a set of questions designed help you stay informed on the most important issues. You can predict everything from the CPI rate, to the price of Bitcoin, to the richest person in the world.

January 2024’s contest had 18 questions with the average subscriber answering 16.18% of questions correctly.

Up to 10 winners of the January 2024 contest will be eligible to receive up to $2000 in awards for their right answers with first prize receiving $1000. Our top two winners for January are below**.

— 1ST PLACE - sophisticated_ocean24 - (11/18 Correct)

— 2ND PLACE - effervescent_truth92 - (9/18 Correct)

Congratulations to our first ever winners! If you want to play Fantasy Buzz and be eligible for cash rewards and other prizes, as well as Premium insights, make sure you become a premium subscriber to Tech Buzz. 

FAQs

Am I eligible to win in February?

1. Become a Premium Subscriber to Tech Buzz.

2. Go to https://www.fantasybuzz.ai and answer this month’s questions.

3. Read our weekly emails to stay up to date on the latest insights, deadlines, and payouts.

Quentin, how do I check to see if I’ve won this round?

Go to https://www.fantasybuzz.ai and log in to your account to check your status. Make sure your email is legitimate to be able to claim your prize. Winners will be emailed this week.

February 2024 Competition

The February round is open now. It features the most relevant economic, tech, and financial questions for February as well as others like: 

• “Will Taylor Swift win "Album of the Year" at the 2024 Grammy Awards?” 

• “Who will win Super Bowl 58?”

• “Will Trump or Biden be higher on national election polls at the end of February?”

January 2024 Results Brief

Below is a brief outline of each question with an overview of what happened in January. For a more detailed Premium Report on these questions including projections and forecasts for coming months, as well as other custom insights for subscribers, join Tech Buzz Premium. 

1. JANUARY’S BIGGEST UPSET: Will Elon Musk still be the richest person in the world?

• Correct Answer: No 

• Community Response: Market Upset - 72% of respondents incorrectly.

Not many had this outcome on their bingo card either. French LVMH luxury brand scion Bernard Arnault beat Elon out on $211B over Musk’s $198B net worth. 

Musk suffered as a result of TSLA’s terrible January (Elon owns 13% of shares). He managed to claw back first place briefly just before the end of the month, before a Delaware court ruling rejected his Tesla compensation package on the last day. In contrast, LVMH had a very good January, seeing a 6.9% increase from €723 - €773 on the French Stock Exchange.

2. CPI for December

• Correct answer: Higher than November 2023

• Community Result: Market Upset - Only 31% predicted correctly (55% incorrectly predicted a lower inflation rate.)

CPI data was released on January 12th 2024. The CPI rose 0.3% in December after rising 0.1% in November, so inflation rose at a faster rate in December than in November 2023 compared to the previous monthly figures. 

• The CPI only rose 3.9% year-over-year when excluding volatile food and energy prices. Over half of the increase stemmed from rising shelter costs, which rose 0.5% from November and 6.2% year-over-year. 

• Food prices increased 0.2% in December, the same as in November. But egg prices surged 8.9% on the month. 

• Energy posted a 0.4% gain after sliding 2.3% in November as gasoline rose 0.2%.

3. Attendance figures for CES 2024

• Correct answer: Yes

• Community Result: Spot on - 77% predicted correctly

CES 2024 was finally back to pre-pandemic attendance levels with an officially announced number of 135,000 attendees. The 2023 audited CES attendance figure was only 117,841.

4. FAANG stock performance

• Correct answer: Netflix

• Community Results: Market Upset - Only 10% picked Netflix, while 55% had Amazon or Apple.

Netflix is on a roll to start 2024 after adding 13.1 million subscribers in Q4 2023 and finishing December with almost 80 million subscribers in the U.S., a significant year-over-year increase of 12.8% and its largest fourth quarter ever. Netflix’s fourth-quarter earnings report in late Jan also showed a better-than-projected 12.5% higher revenue of $8.8 billion, driven by 13% growth in subscribers. Netflix also forecasts a slightly stronger top-line growth rate for the first quarter of 2024, forecasting a 13.2% year-over-year revenue growth to $9.2 billion. Investors appreciated this progress, with the stock seeing an 8% jump to just above $530 after the earnings report and closing the month out strongly on $564 from a starting point of $468 per share. That was a 20.5% increase.

In contrast, Meta was the next strongest performer with a 12.7% increase for the month and an even stronger start to February post its earnings report. Apple finished pretty much flat for the month (0.5% decrease) despite some large fluctuations up and down over the month, Amazon was up 4% m-o-m, and Google was only up 1.4%.

To see a full report on each FAANG stock including reasons for performance and projections for the future get Premium now.

5. Will Sam Altman be CEO of OpenAI?

• Correct Answer: Yes

• Community Response: Spot on - Subscribers were very confident on this one with 77% accuracy.

This one was a Gimme. Failing an unpredictable catastrophe or criminal charges, there was no reason to believe the situation would change in January. After winning a leadership battle in late 2023, Altman clearly had the support of the staff, the newly reconfigured Board, and the major investor Microsoft.

6. TSLA's post-earnings report price change

• Correct Answer: Down 7% or more

• Community Response: Market Upset - Only 15% answered correctly.

Tesla (TSLA) stock price tanked after the company’s January earnings report saw its worst performance in two years. The share price tumbled 12% on Thursday after Tesla reported fourth-quarter earnings of 71 cents a share, below Wall Street estimates for 73 cents. The EV giant’s sales for Q4 were $25.2 billion, missing forecasts for $25.6 billion. TSLA stock was already down nearly 16%, before the earnings report on poor forecasts and went on to see a total of 24.5% decrease for the month. TSLA will likely see further declines since earnings are not projected to improve much and the stock appears to have lost a critical support level. 

For a full analysis of Tesla’s January performance and short-longer-term forecasts get Premium now. 

7. Ethereum Price on January 31st

• Correct Answer: Between $1700 and $2299

• Community Response: Market Upset - 68% were expecting above $2300.

What we actually got was a pretty major pullback from January’s highs along with Bitcoin and other Altcoins after the Bitcoin spot ETF.

8. Weekly average 30-year fixed mortgage rate

• Correct Answer: Below 7.08%

• Community Response: Market Upset - 69% expected interest rates to be above 7.08.

What we actually got in the Jan 24th survey was a result of 6.69%, providing some welcome relief for mortgage holders.

9. The Fed’s Interest Rate Decision

• Correct Answer: No change compared to November 2023

• Community Response: On Trend - 49% of respondents correctly predicted this result.

The Federal Reserve decided to hold U.S. rates steady on its Wednesday 31 Jan FOMC meeting. U.S. stocks extended losses and Treasury yields fell after the Fed's statement, which also used language suggesting further hikes could be in the offing next month, and all but ruled out that a rate cut would come at the next meeting in March.

10. New Residential Homes Sales

• Correct Answer: Higher than November 2023

• Community Response: Market Upset - Only 29% of respondents correctly predicted this one with 56% expecting lower home sales for December.

Sales of new single‐family houses in December 2023 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 664,000. This was 8.0 % above the revised November 2023 estimate of 615,000. The median new house price in December was $413,200, a 13.8% decline from a year ago, reflecting a year of elevated interest rates and price cuts by builders to attract buyers. Results varied by region too. Monthly sales rose in the Northeast, Midwest and the densely populated South, but fell in the West. 

11. Top video game

• Correct Answer: Other (Grand Theft Auto VI)

• Community Response: Market Upset - Only 21% of respondents correctly predicted this

According to Nielson data, Grand Theft Auto VI is the top video game Americans are looking to buy next. Number two was Tekken 8.

12. WTI Oil price

• Correct Answer: $72-$75.99

• Community Response: Market Upset - 29% of respondents correctly picked this outcome

The price at the end of the month was $73.82. Economists were predicting crude oil prices for the first quarter of 2024 to rise somewhat, driven by OPEC+ production cuts leading to global stock draws of 810,000 b/d. It appears most subscribers were predicting prices would be higher as a result of the ongoing Middle Eastern conflict and the Red Sea blockade by Yemen’s Houthi rebels. For the detailed reasons this didn’t play out as expected read the Premium Report.

13. Will GPT-5 be announced?

• Correct Answer: No

• Community Response: On Trend - 64% of respondents correctly picked this.

  Since the 2023 leadership spat, a new Board has been created with less safety focus suggesting GPT-5 could be released this year. This open bet on whether GPT-5 will be released before 2025 suggests betters believe there is over a 70% chance this will happen. 

14. AFC championship Game

• Correct Answer: Chiefs

• Community Response: Market Upset - Only 25% predicted this.

The Baltimore Ravens were the favorites to win the AFC Championship leading into the final game against the Kansas City Chiefs. However, the Chiefs stepped up and took it away with a 17-10 scoreline to advance to their second straight Super Bowl.

15. NFC championship Game

• Correct Answer: 49ers

• Community Response: On Trend - 39% predicted this result with the 49ers being the most favored by respondents. 

The 49ers were -300 favorites to win. However, The bookies and everyone else were almost wrong on this one as San Francisco went down to a 17-point deficit, before managing to claw it back to punch their 2024 Super Bowl ticket.

16. Highest aggregate points (AFC or NFC)?

• Correct Answer: NFC

• Community Response: This was pretty much a 50/50 call

17. Gold Price

• Correct Answer: $2000-$2099

• Community Response: Market Upset - 22% picked this result, 72% believed the price would be above 2100

Gold prices were forecasted by most analysts to hit fresh highs and to remain above $2,000 levels in 2024. Major factors keeping the price strong are geopolitical uncertainty (Middle East, Taiwan, Ukraine), a likely weaker U.S. dollar and, predicted interest rate cuts. Also, fears of a major market crash are likely fueling speculation on Gold since it has traditionally been a strong store of value in economic downturns.  

18. Bitcoin Price

• Correct Answer: Between $40,000 and $44,999

• Community Response: On Trend - 34% picked this result, with 37% predicting above $45,000.

Bitcoin started the month at $43,599 and finished at $42,424 slightly down for the month. The big news in December was the SEC's decision to allow spot bitcoin ETFs to begin trading. However, despite a price spike to above $48,000, this has looked a lot like a “sell the news” event in January with Bitcoin losing 20% of its market cap and declining back below $40,000 briefly before finding local support and meandering on upward. 

Get a detailed analysis of the Bitcoin price and various factors influencing price and forecasts in the premium report.

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The Tech Buzz Team