Trump 2025 and Tech: Navigating Uncertainty and Opportunity [Full Report]

We are at a unique transitional point in the USA, experiencing a mix of trepidation, uncertainty, and even excitement about a potential resurgence of homegrown industry, with much of Trump’s MAGA focus expected to be on onshoring and reprioritizing domestic industry. 

The tech sector is anticipating the possibility of floods of VC money pouring in, channeled by figures like Elon Musk and other major tech leaders who will be present at the inauguration including execs from most US big tech companies. We will at least know a lot more about the likely direction by Monday when Trump’s much-anticipated Day one pledges and orders are made. But, here we explore some of the key news shaping this week’s lead up, including Trump’s potential TikTok stay of execution order, crypto reserve rumors, macroeconomic headwinds and the likely tech trends and sectors and startups to watch this year.

The world is in constant flux, with technological advancements, political shifts, and economic uncertainties reshaping our reality on a daily basis. Our goal for 2025 is to cut through the noise and deliver the signal, ensuring you stay ahead of the curve in this dynamic era. Expect more in-depth reports and more content in general.

Trump’s Re-Initiation by Fire

Trump’s incoming government is facing significant market headwinds, with company valuations and the stock market at all time highs. Biden is using this time to consolidate his legacy with a flurry of executive orders, including major updates to AI chips, security, and defense that will lay down a gauntlet for the incoming regime. This is occurring alongside a stated Trump policy of tightening trade restrictions and curbs on AI and defense exports to China, which should accelerate and scale these restrictions.

Trump is expected to intervene to prevent a TikTok ban, either by executive order, a 90-day extension for ByteDance to find a buyer, or by requesting a delay from the Supreme Court, indicating his intent to find a political solution and keep the platform available in the US. This represents a change in stance from his first term, and is underscored by the fact he has invited TikTok CEO Shou Zi Chew to his inauguration.

Other headwinds and challenges the incoming administration may face include:

• Economic Instability: There are concerns that the U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio is approaching 100%, which could lead to a bond market crisis, with the potential for bond vigilantes to drive up yields and trigger a recession. The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds has already risen substantially. Some experts believe that the bond market is the "boogeyman" to watch.

• Market Volatility: The stock market has shown signs of instability, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both experiencing declines. There are concerns that the market is overvalued, with some indicators suggesting a level of euphoria around AI and tech not seen since the dot-com bubble. This market exuberance is coupled with the anticipation of rising inflation and a potential slowdown in Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, further creating more headwinds in the markets. High and rising bond yields are putting pressure on equity markets.

• Overhyped AI Bubble Speculation: AI is the dominant theme across multiple sectors, with massive investment pouring into AI-focused companies. Close to a third of all global venture funding went to companies in AI-related fields in 2024, making it the leading sector for funding, with over $314 billion invested in startups. However, there are also concerns about the potential for an AI bubble and a repeat of the telecom bust of 2000.

• AI Infrastructure Bottlenecks – There is also a potential memory shortage emerging as a key bottleneck for further AI system development. Even with massive spending on AI local chip manufacturing and data centers authorized in 2024 by Biden, this will continue to be a challenge throughout the year. Pres. Biden's latest executive order allows AI companies to lease federal land for data centers with mandatory renewable energy requirements as one way to incentivise solutions. It will be interesting to see what solutions Trump and Musk have to this problem

Many are asking whether this tech bull market juggernaut can keep going or if some sort of crash is likely in the early days of the Trump administration. There are likely many on Wall Street and in the startup world waiting for a quick crash as the signal to cash heavy firms to finally deploy masses of capital into the next cycle banking on a fast recovery akin to the covid crash. 

It's ultimately a matter of perspective (faith?) as to whether a new cycle has started or is yet to begin, however, it’s also possible that the old models are just broken, and the realities of AI, crypto, global interconnectedness and a massive growing competition between superpowers and the BRICS bloc could make for a very different future. We are in uncharted territory, and we must be prepared for the unexpected.

Forecasting Possible Trends for 2025

Trump Administration Policies 

The incoming Trump administration's policies are a major factor in the uncertainty. While some expect tax cuts and business-friendly, re-localization and efficiency reforms to boost the economy, others worry about potential trade tensions, higher tariffs on imported clean technology, and a withdrawal from the Paris climate accord affecting renewable energy stocks and climate tech as well as challenging the current economic order. 

Job Displacement

There are also concerns that Trump's plans to downsize the government, as well as the rapid integration of AI and automation in industry and the corporate sector could lead to significant job displacement across various sectors, including white-collar professions. This trend is further compounded by the rise of remote work and offshoring, allowing companies to access cheaper AI-powered labor pools in other countries with AI-powered SOTA translation and productivity tools.

Regulatory Challenges

The regulatory landscape for AI is complex and evolving, with state-level initiatives potentially creating a fragmented and burdensome environment for AI companies. There is a push for a federal-level approach to avoid the difficulties created by different state regulations.

Technology and Geopolitics

The US is actively seeking to constrain China in the AI sector through export restrictions, which is causing tension in the tech sector. This effort may lead to a further cooling in the relationship between the two nations. There are concerns about the impact of new U.S. AI chip export curbs on companies like Nvidia. 

Mining and Metals

The Trump administration might boost deep-sea mining for critical minerals, which could raise environmental concerns but also secure more US independence from China and Russia in the deep tech and AI industries reliant on these metals. AI mineral development companies like Kobold are also likely to continue with their pioneering approach using Ai to discover new sources of metals, as well as AI molecular research finding new alloys and combinations of molecules (both metallic and biotechnological) to power this 3rd Industrial revolution explosion of material technology.

Real Estate and Insurance

High rates and the Fed looking likely to pause cuts are also unlikely to provide much relief to the embattled commercial and residential real estate markets in the short term, barring a sharp crash to reset the checkerboard. 

The recent LA wildfires have caused immense devastation, with a death toll of at least 24 and approximately 10,000 structures destroyed, potentially reaching $250 billion in damages. The fires have highlighted the vulnerability of even affluent neighborhoods, and the insurance market is strained as some companies scale back coverage, forcing homeowners into a state-run pool that is now covering billions of dollars in property. We covered the unsustainability of this system and the need for reform in our Tuesday feature on the fires.  

A Glimpse of the Future

Despite these challenges, there are many great reasons for optimism. The rapid advancements in AI, and other deep technology and digital industrial revolution trends, for example, present immense opportunities for innovation and economic growth. Here are some key trends and opportunities to watch in 2025:

• Convergence of Technologies: The convergence of AI, robotics and spatial AI is creating a "third industrial revolution," enabled by agentic AI and an associated deep tech explosion. At CES last week, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huangunveiled how close to reality this multi-trillion dollar mega industry is.

• Scaling AI Infrastructure: There is a race to scale artificial intelligence, with significant investments in compute, data, and talent. Companies that provide infrastructure for physical and spatial AI, such as Nvidia, are positioned to benefit.

• Agentic AI: The rise of agentic AI, where AI tools can act autonomously, is expected to be a significant trend in 2025. This includes Nvidia's just updated NIM Agentic AI tools.

• Our CES 2025 coverage highlighted much of this coming wave of innovation as AI-driven smart homes, automation and even smart cities like Toyota’s Woven City. Also, 2024 saw an explosion of deep tech which impacted opportunities in space tech, quantum computing, biotech and defense sectors.

• Space Race Escalation: Space exploration is another sector expected to see growth, with companies like SpaceX and Blue Origin pushing the boundaries. Space factories using 3D printing tech are also becoming closer to reality, as are solar harvesting energy arrays in space that exceed all the world’s oil in their energy generating potential.

• Industrial Transformation: New technologies are transforming industrial manufacturing, with the emergence of industrial co-pilots, digital twinning, and intelligent automation.

• Biotech: Biotech is also seeing growth, with AI-driven processes within synthetic biology driving innovation in sustainable fuels and biodegradable plastics, drug discovery and material tech.

• Fintech: Fintech is looking likely to make a massive bounceback in 2025 as the financial conditions start to change in dramatic ways, with a more supportive Trump regime. There is also a blockchain and agentic AI revolution slowly consuming the sector.

• Real Estate: The real estate sector is being supercharged by AI and the fintech and deep tech revolutions with automation and innovative new ownership models such as DAOs. We recently covered the Otonomus AI hotel feature in our Beyond Tech weekend feature as an example of how AI changing the sector. 

• Fighting Fire: The growing AI-powered, smart city and energy sectors are even making it more possible to redesign our urban environments to become more decentralized and energy and water sensitive and resilient, making real estate a safer investment.

• Cybersecurity: Cybersecurity is becoming increasingly critical in the age of interconnected systems and evolving threatsin an AI powered world, with companies like CrowdStrike continuing to innovate in this space.

• Cryptocurrency: We are seeing a rise of cryptocurrency and rapidly escalating institutional adoption, which is only likely to escalate with an incoming president who founded a crypto protocol World Liberty Financial and is considering establishing a crypto reserve that would prioritize U.S.-based coins. This is probably being seen as very good news for US based crypto companies, and represents a shift from his previous stance, as creating a bitcoin-focused strategic stockpile was among his key crypto-related campaign pledges, but Kalshi odds took a massive leap on this news and Bitcoin rebounded above $100K. Dogecoin is US-based right?

What Trump 2025 Means For Startups

Tech Startups & Investors: Key Trends for 2025

The tech startup outlook for 2025 is likewise a mix of opportunity and uncertainty, driven by rapid AI advancements, shifting geopolitics, and economic volatility. AI remains dominant, with investors pouring money into its transformative potential across industries. Simultaneously, deep tech is experiencing a resurgence, attracting capital for long-term, science-based projects in areas such as aerospace, energy, and biotech.

The incoming Trump administration's policies are expected to impact the tech sector, including a more favorable stance on crypto, potential deregulation, and a focus on onshoring. However, trade tensions and geopolitical instability also pose risks. Investors are likely to shift focus toward profitability and sustainable growth over rapid expansion.

Opportunities for Tech Startups:

• AI-Driven Applications: Startups with clear AI use cases and strong business models will thrive. This includes sectors such as healthcare, robotics, professional services, and security. Agentic AI, where software performs complex tasks autonomously, presents new market opportunities.

• Infrastructure Investments: The demand for robust data infrastructure to support AI will drive growth in cloud computing, data security, and specialized hardware as well as alternative energy and quantum computing.

• Deep Tech Ventures: Space, energy, and biotech offer long-term growth potential.

Challenges & Considerations

• Regulatory Uncertainty: Changing regulations create volatility.

• Market Volatility: Investors must prepare for potential economic instability and focus on sustainable growth.

We will be closely following these trends and providing you with updates throughout 2025. Here are some of our articles that may help you navigate this landscape:

• "2024 Biggest Fundraising Deals & Trends": Provides insights into the major funding deals and trends of 2024 and key trends and issues to watch in 2025.

• "California Burns & Tech Offers Hope": Explores how technology can be used to address pressing issues such as wildfires.

• "DeepBuzz CES Full Report": A comprehensive summary of news and insights from CES 2025, highlighting key technological developments across different sectors.

• "Beyond Tech" last weekend’s feature: Highlights the Otonomus AI hotel in Las Vegas.

We also have exciting announcements coming soon, including more in-depth analysis, interviews with industry leaders, and exclusive insights from our team on the ground. At the Tech Buzz, we aim to continue bringing you the most timely and useful content to keep you apprised of the markets, latest tech developments, and share our thinking on some of the best startups, deals, sectors and opportunities. We are also looking for new creators and contributors to help us build this community. You can also check out our 2024 year in review here, which summarized key deals and trends from last year. Thank you for joining us on this journey. We are committed to being your trusted source for navigating the future of tech and beyond. It's going to be a big year so strap in for lift-off.

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Microsoft — Free M365 Copilot Chat with pay-per-use AI agents ($0.01/msg).

Nvidia — New NIM services for AI agent safety and control.

Google — 1. Titans Separate memory layer LLM architecture cuts costs over millions of tokens. | 2. Gemini-powered auto AI assistant debuts in Mercedes MBUX.

Sony — Launches L2 blockchain on OP Stack for web2-web3 bridge.

Lindy.ai — AI phone agent that talks with customers to schedule, leads calls itself, then even schedules solar panel installations fully autonomously.

MBZUAI — LlamaV-o1 visual reasoning model hits 67.3% SOTA performance.

DEEP TECH
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Quantum Breakthrough — First-ever molecular entanglement with 92% fidelity.

Quantum Stocks — QC stocks rip higher on Microsoft’s ‘quantum-ready’ directive.

Smart Ring — Afference haptic feedback ring for touchless smart glass control.

Snowflake — O-s state recycling LLM optimization reduces AI inference time 50%.

DNA Nanorobots — DNA origami system for precise drug delivery into cells.

[NEW FEATURE]
SPACE_RACE

—Blue Origin_Postponed the inaugural launch of its first orbital rocket, New Glenn

—SpaceX_To launch 2xprivate lunar landers this week + Starship Flight 7 LIVE 

—Space Factories_ Off-world factories a step closer with 3D printing tech progress.

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